Survival Manifesto

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Written by Ian E. Macindoe

Preamble to Survival Manifesto

I think the thing to stress regarding the Survival Manifesto is that it is an attempt to suggest a vision of 'where we need to go' in the long run. It is an objective to strive towards. If the goals and strategies we follow currently, or over the next few years, do not lead in that direction, then we should be questioning what we are about. Clearly, the four main things being outlined (no-growth steady-state economies; smaller populations; reduced consumerism; material equivalence in living standards) are not likely to happen soon. While some within the climate change movement will not agree that these four elements are necessary for safe mitigation of climate change, there should be no disagreement that they are worthy goals to aspire to, and that the world would be a better place if they could be accomplished. So, this is the context in which the Manifesto should be understood.

Survival Manifesto — This is what it will take

By mid-21st century the planet will be a different place. It may not be friendly to humans due to:
(a) climate change, produced by 4º C warming as we approach 650 parts per million of CO2-equivalents,
(b) social and economic crises caused by energy depletion and failure to stop growthist policies, and
(c) ecological and environmental devastation as an unsustainable global population depletes most readily available natural resources, leaving little or nothing for future generations.
To prevent this scenario it will be necessary to drastically alter the way we live. To help us survive during the 21st century we need a vision of a sustainable future and goals to strive towards.

GOALS
The world-wide establishment of
• dynamic no-growth steady-state economies , for
• smaller populations , based on
• materially equivalent lifestyles of equitable frugality , in
• environmentally and socially sustainable societies.

Therefore, we need to RESIST
• economic growth, especially in wealthy nations;
• consumption growth, particularly among middle and upper socio-economic classes; and
• population growth, while at the same time raising the level of education, water access and quality, and health services for disadvantaged populations.
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Reasoning
Human generation of greenhouse gases and our consumption of natural resources are driven by a global population mostly intent upon improving material standards of living. To achieve this we have developed a growth economy and highly mechanised energy-hungry agricultural and industrial methods. Our economic system uses fossil fuel energy, predominantly oil, natural gas and coal. The big problems with this are: (i) these energy sources are finite and will be depleted to near-exhaustion within 50 years, and (ii) burning fossil fuels contributes to greenhouse gas increases in the atmosphere, resulting in global warming.

Because the prevailing economic system pursues growth (falsely claiming that it will lift millions out of poverty) there is no genuine willingness to forego extravagant use of fossil fuel energy. So growth (economic, consumption and population) produces an unsustainable situation: unsustainable because resources cannot last (fossil fuels will become very expensive as they are depleted to near-exhaustion within 50 years); and because life on the planet is in jeopardy (global warming will threaten survival, including human survival).

Most people—whether they are conservationists, environmentalists, conservatives or radicals—even while recognising the seriousness of the problem, seem unable to take the necessary urgent action to address it. But we cannot have it both ways: either we continue with growth (often called 'business as usual') which means using up all fossil fuels while they last; or we adopt non-growth policies, retain what fossil fuels and other natural resources are left so they can be sparingly used by future generations, and learn to live within alternative renewable-energy means.

And let's not fool ourselves. For the wealthy 'living within our renewable-energy means' translates into living a less extravagant lifestyle. A great deal of manufacturing that uses fossil fuel energy and mineral resources will need to be curtailed. For reasons of social fairness and cohesion it will be necessary to gradually (but not too gradually) bring about an equitable distribution of energy, resources and wealth throughout the world. No country, region, social class or individual can be privileged beyond others: we must strive towards an equivalence of material standard-of-living for all. This will take time, but it is the goal to work towards.

Material Equivalence of Living Standards
As a matter of fairness we need to move towards a world in which each person, regardless of their abilities and circumstances, lives at a standard that is materially equivalent to every other person's standard of living. Within that constraint of material equivalence of living standards (MELS) we can encourage and celebrate differences and diversity—in culture, interests, relationships and so on.

As we develop socially towards MELS we will need to reduce poverty at the same time as we reduce affluence. So, as we strive to increase the wealth of the impoverished and underprivileged, we also strive to decrease the wealth of the rich and privileged, until we approximate MELS for all, both within and between nations.

Such a 'levelling of the economic playing field' also implies the struggle to eliminate advantage based on social status, power and privilege—as well as the need to dissolve differences in living standards associated with class, caste, religion, gender, race, age and so on. Economic democracy must be accompanied by social democracy.

It is recognised that modern differences in income and wealth are an historical legacy from past traditions, now fostered and maintained by market forces and power structures in which those who benefit collude. This applies not only to business executives and owners, lucky investors and entrepreneurs, and the well educated, but also to such people as those in the sporting elites, stars of music and film, politicians and government bureaucrats. All, without realising it, are participating in a social system that promotes and maintains the ascendancy of the 'haves' over the 'have nots'. In effect we are all a part of what amounts to an unconscious conspiracy to maintain an unfair situation. We must do what we can, politically and socially, to change this system and bring about MELS for all.

Urgent priority: Governments must act quickly to preserve remaining reserves of fossil fuels for their use in the manufacture and establishment of a 100% renewable energy infrastructure. For oil, coal and gas this means rationing, withholding sale to major users, and re-directing remaining fossil fuels into strictly regulated use to manufacture and build the hardware for the production of renewable energy. Since accessible world reserves of oil, coal and natural gas are unlikely to last for 50 years at current levels of consumption (and will become very expensive as supplies dwindle over the next decade or two) any rational assessment of this situation demands that action along these lines be taken without delay.

Other examples of important actions:
• Development of both theory and practice in a transition to a steady-state no-growth economy.
• Public education in the morality and desirability of material equivalence in living standards. And along with this, encouragement for people to value and practice spending quality time with family and friends, and engaging constructively in community activities rather than working harder and longer for more material possessions.
• Identification of incentives for (i) social and political change to parallel changes in energy production, (ii) restrictions on consumption of non-renewable resources, and (iii) an equitable redistribution of income and wealth.
• Intensified public education in civics, human rights, democracy, ethics and related thought.
• Encouragement of local governments to participate in the transition towns movement.
• Encouragement of governments, both federal and state, to use media and other methods to engage the public in discussions of food security, permaculture and organic food production.
• Advocate to governments that they begin the process of regulation of air travel, both for carriers and travellers, as aviation fuels dry up, the aviation industry re-structures and international tourism declines.
• Adopt the practice of placing depletion protocols on all non-renewable resources.

Your comments are welcome.
Ian Macindoe: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.